Showing posts with label market conditions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market conditions. Show all posts

Monday, January 26, 2009

Health Care REIT, Inc. Added to S&P 500

Standard & Poor's announced that Health Care REIT Inc. (NYSE:HCN) will replace Sovereign Bancorp Inc.(NYSE:SOV) in the S&P 500. Standard & Poor’s Announces Changes to U.S. Indices [.pdf] Sovereign is being acquired by Banco Santander SA, leaving a vacancy in the index.
Health Care REIT, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust that invests across the full spectrum of senior housing and health care real estate, including independent living/continuing care retirement communities, assisted living facilities, skilled nursing facilities, hospitals, long-term acute care hospitals and medical office buildings.


Disclaimers

Monday, October 27, 2008

Emerging Trends in Real Estate

The Urban land Institute's  Emerging Trends in Real Estate for 2009 came out with a picture of doom and gloom, predicting that in 2009, commercial real estate will suffer its worst year since the industry's crash of 1991-92, with a noticeable rebound unlikely until 2011 at the earliest. It also forecasts a decline of 15% to 20% in property values, on average, from their 2007 peaks, with even sharper declines coming in weaker markets.

Of the 50 markets tracked, the study found only Dallas and Houston have prospects for investment and development in 2009 that should be better than in 2008, thanks to their exposure to the energy industry. All other markets face deteriorating conditions next year, the study said.

But, the report does point out that there are opportunities to be found.


Disclaimers

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Largest Real Estate Investment Managers

Pensions and Investments Online put together a list of the Largest Real Estate Investment Managers. The list is ranked by total worldwide real estate assets, in millions, as of June 30, 2008.

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Monday, September 29, 2008

Economic Emergency Stabilization Act of 2008

The White House and Congressional Leaders finalized the Bailout Bill: Current draft of the Economic Emergency Stabilization Act of 2008. (from the Wall Street Journal) It will be interesting to see how it progresses through the House and Senate. I expect to see a lot of salesmanship as politicians try to weave into their current political campaigns.

What does it actually do?  Read this summary from the WSJ.com: Shape of Massive Bailout Bill Starts to Develop Definition

Disclaimers

Monday, September 15, 2008

When Life Hands You Lehman, Make Lehman-Aid

Over the weekend, Lehman Brothers lost its interested buyers and got ready to file for bankruptcy. According to the New York Times, interested buyers wanted the federal backstop that was put into place for JP Morgan Chase purchase of Bear Stearns: 2 Wall St. Banks Falter; Markets Shaken.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the lack of a backstop scared off Bank of America and Barclays PLC: Ultimatum by Paulson Sparked Frantic End. Most people think various buyers will swoop in and buy individual pieces of Lehman.

On Sunday afternoon, a trading session was opened to allow firms to try to unwind their derivatives transactions with Lehman by finding other parties to step into Lehman's shoes: Lehman Risk Reduction Trading Session and Protocol Agreement.

It should be an interesting Monday and an interesting week.

Thanks to Rob Hyndman for coming up with this blog post title. I stole it from one of his Twitter Post (@rhh)

Disclaimers
All of these companies are clients of The Firm, but I am not aware of The Firm's participation in any of the weekend's events. If The Firm was involved, I was not. 

Friday, September 12, 2008

Opportunity Funds Overfloweth

National Real Estate Investor published a story by Joe Gose on the flow of capital into distressed property funds: Opportunity Funds OVERFLOWETH.
"Opportunity funds concentrating on distress intend to take advantage of the seized-up debt markets in a few different ways. Many funds are buying debt at a discount from investment banks stuck with billions of dollars of loans they can't securitize. Other investors believe loose underwriting and over-leveraged properties will soon lead to maturity defaults, essentially defaults that occur when a landlord can't refinance a property because it isn't worth the loan coming due or because a landlord can't come up with a slug of equity that lenders want. Those funds intend to buy up that real estate, or at least gain a position in the assets."
It will be interesting to see if the capital markets come back into time to avoid a commercial real estate crash.  The loose underwriting standards we saw eighteen months ago are gone (for the foreseeable future). But most commercial property owners have enough cash flow to pay the monthly debt payments.

The problem will come at maturity. Commercial property owners may have a hard time rounding mortgage debt to replace the maturing debt. It was the short maturity on Mr. Macklowe's debt that forced him to sell the GM Building. More commercial property owners are going to be faced with mortgage debt maturity. Will there be mortgage debt there to replace it?

Disclaimers

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Office Building Classifications

I was poking around for a definition of Class A buildings and had a hard time finding a solid definition.

In BOMA's Building Class Definitions, buildings are grouped into Class A, Class B and Class C. But BOMA does not recommend the publishing of a classification rating for individual properties.

Metropolitan Base Definitions
Class A. Most prestigious buildings competing for premier office users with rents above average for the area. Buildings have high quality standard finishes, state of the art systems, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence.

Class B. Buildings competing for a wide range of users with rents in the average range for the area. Building finishes are fair to good for the area. Building finishes are fair to good for the area and systems are adequate, but the building does not compete with Class A at the same price.

Class C. Buildings competing for tenants requiring functional space at rents below the average for the area.
BOMA goes further with International definitions:

International Base Definitions
Investment. Investment quality properties are those that are unique in their location in the best metropolitan markets in the world, their design and construction quality, the solidity of the tenants and the tenant markets that they serve and the outstanding building management that is responsible for operating and maintaining them. These properties stand out as leaders not only within their own metropolitan areas but also within the international investment community. Investment properties usually contain state of the art mechanical, electrical, life safety, elevator and communications systems. Their finishes are of the highest standards and they often provide the occupants with a mix of amenities - in variety and quality - that is exceptional. Often they house a lead tenant for whom the property is named and usually they are located in a premier metropolitan area. Investment grade properties need not be considered to be "trophy" material but trophy properties are usually investment grade.

Institutional. Institutional grade properties are those of sufficient size and stature that they merit attention by large national or international investors, hence the name. These properties are of good design and construction, although they are rarely monumental in design or the use of construction materials. They are typically large. They may be located in secondary metropolitan areas, but invariably they will have a very stable tenant base.

Speculative. Speculative properties usually will conform to popular design conventions (at the time that they are constructed), but without the use of exceptional materials or construction methods. The design and construction of these properties emphasizes functionality, in contrast with aesthetics or image and the design rarely reflects the image of any particular tenant or occupant. To attract national or international attention, speculative properties must be relatively large, although minimum size requirements are lower for properties located in premier office markets. They are often occupied by multiple tenants.
Of course, Wikipedia has an entry: Wikipedia's Class A Office Space

Although the US seems to be lacking objective classification of buildings, the Moscow office market has laid out some objective standards for classifying buildings: Office Building Classification. According to the Moscow Office of Jones Lang LaSalle:
The new classification aims to divide the office stock into three classes according to a number of objective criteria. The classification was developed with the participation of professionals from the Construction, Property Management and Office Service industries.  The principal difference of the new classification from the previous one is the division of stock into А, В+ and В- classes. The major difference is also in giving a more structured criteria for modern office building classification. Leading real estate consultants: CB Richard Ellis Noble Gibbons, Colliers International, Cushman and Wakefield, Stiles and Riabokobylko and Jones Lang LaSalle have prepared a new classification of office buildings, dividing modern quality office stock  into 3 classes: A, B+ and B-.
Square Feet started this with his (or her) Guide to Office Building Classifications.


Disclaimers

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Retail in Russia

In last week's Wall Street Journal, there was an article on Developers Diversified Realty Corp.'s plan to expand into Russia: Mall Developer Targets Russia.

I found the statistic on retail space to be really interesting.
In Russia, the volume of shopping space per 1,000 inhabitants makes up about 420 square feet, according to Maxim Karbasnikoff, European Director, Russia, at brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle. In contrast, there is 25,758 square feet of shopping space available for every 1,000 people in the U.S.
 It makes me want to head out to the Chestnut Hill Mall and mark off my own 5 feet square of space in the courtyard.

Disclaimers

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Mapping Foreclosures in Massachusetts

The Boston Federal Reserve Bank has put together a great interactive map showing two decades of foreclosure activity in Massachusetts: Foreclosure Rates in Massachusetts Cities and Towns 1990-2007.

There is a lot of red, showing lots of foreclosures in 2007

But there was a lot more red in 1992

This graphic was developed in conjunction with a paper by Kristopher Gerardi, Adam Shapiro, and Paul S. Willen, "Subprime Outcomes: Risky Mortgages, Homeownership Experiences, and Foreclosures," which presents the first rigorous assessment of the homeownership experience of subprime borrowers, using data on subprime mortgages, foreclosures, and house prices from 1989 to 2007 in Massachusetts cities and towns.

"Subprime Facts: What (We Think) We Know about the Subprime Crisis and What We Don't," by Christopher L. Foote, Lorenz Goette, Paul S. Willen, and Kristopher Gerardi.

Dynamic Maps of Nonprime Mortgage Conditions in the United States (Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
Thanks to Boston.com's Real Estate Now for pointing out this map:
Mapping foreclosures
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Saturday, May 24, 2008

Rev. Proc. 2008-28 and Foreclosure Relief for Securitizations

The Internal Revenue Service issued Revenue Procedure 2008-28 [.PDF ] which provides for the modification of certain mortgage loans will not jeopardize the favorable tax treatment of the capital structure for certain securitization capital structures.

One issue impacting the downturn in the real estate market is the inability of some lenders to revise the loan terms to avoid foreclosure. The packing of loans into a securitization structure was usually accomplished by using a REMIC or other tax-favorable structure. By adhering to the REMIC rules, the payments to the lender passed through the REMIC structure would not be taxed until received by the investors in the REMIC structure. REMICs are governed by Section 860A - 860G of the Internal Revenue Code.

One of the limitations in the REMIC structure is that the loans cannot be materially modified. If modified, the IRS imposes a hefty tax penalty. Section 860F(a)(1) imposes a tax on a REMIC equal to 100 percent of the net income derived from “prohibited transactions.” The disposition of a qualified mortgage is a prohibited transaction unless the disposition is pursuant to "(i) the substitution of a qualified replacement mortgage for a qualified mortgage; (ii) a disposition incident to the foreclosure, default, or imminent default of the mortgage; (iii) the bankruptcy or insolvency of the REMIC; or (iv) a qualified liquidation."860F(a)(2)

The IRS promulgated Rev. Proc. 2008-28 to give the servicers of residential mortgage loans some more flexibility in providing foreclosure relief, without jeopardizing the capital structure of the mortgage loan securitization. This revenue procedure applies to "a modification of a mortgage loan that is held by a REMIC, or by an investment trust, if all of the following conditions are satisfied:
  1. The real property securing the mortgage loan is a residence that contains fewer than five dwelling units.
  2. The real property securing the mortgage loan is owner-occupied.
  3. (1) If a REMIC holds the mortgage loan, then as of either the startup day or the end of the 3–month period beginning on the startup day, no more than ten percent of the stated principal of the total assets of the REMIC was represented by loans the payments on which were then overdue by 30 days or more; or (2) If an investment trust holds the mortgage loan, then as of all dates when assets were contributed to the trust, no more than ten percent of the stated principal of all the debt instruments then held by the trust was represented by instruments the payments on which were then overdue by 30 days or more.
  4. The holder or servicer reasonably believes that there is a significant risk of foreclosure of the original loan. This reasonable belief may be based on guidelines developed as part of a foreclosure prevention program similar to that described in Section 2 of this revenue procedure or may be based on any other credible systematic determination.
  5. The terms of the modified loan are less favorable to the holder than were the unmodified terms of the original mortgage loan.
  6. The holder or servicer reasonably believes that the modified loan presents a substantially reduced risk of foreclosure, as compared with the original loan."
If the modification meets those requirements, then
  • The IRS will not challenge a securitization vehicle’s qualification as a REMIC on the grounds that the modifications are not among the exceptions listed in § 1.860G–2(b)(3);
  • The IRS will not contend that the modifications are prohibited transactions under section 860F(a)(2) on the grounds that the modifications resulted in one more dispositions of qualified mortgages and that the dispositions are not among the exceptions listed in section 860F(a)(2)(A)(i)–(iv);
  • The IRS will not challenge a securitization vehicle’s classification as a trust under section 301.7701-4(c) on the grounds that the modifications manifest a power to vary the investment of the certificate holders; and
  • The IRS will not challenge a securitization vehicle’s qualification as a REMIC on the grounds that the modifications resulted in a deemed reissuance of the REMIC regular interests.
This revenue procedure governs determinations made by the Service on or after May 16, 2008, with respect to loan modifications that are effected on or before December 31, 2010.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

A Tale of Two Property Markets

While commercial property owners are worried about property market, much of the commercial property market remains stable or strong. In contrast, the residential market is still spiraling down and take lots of people and companies with it.

First up, the summary of REIT earning reports show that most of the public real estate companies are still hitting their earnings targets: REITs Cautious Despite Strong Quarter.
Given fears that a sagging economy and a crippled credit market might wreak havoc on the commercial property market, real-estate investment trusts delivered surprisingly strong earnings for the first quarter, with many companies beating analysts' estimates.
The implosion of the residential markets is taking down builders: Falling Prices Hit Builder Horton - Home Cancellations, Write-Downs Spur $1.31 Billion Loss.

The implosion is also showing the weakness in the underwriting and origination processes for mortgage lender. It was apparently bad enough at Countrywide that it is giving Bank of America second thoughts about its takeover: Acquisition of Lender Is Possibly in Jeopardy. According to an older WSJ.com story, Loan Data Focus of Probe:
The investigators are finding that Countrywide's loan documents often were marked by dubious or erroneous information about its mortgage clients, according to people involved in the matter. The company packaged many of those mortgages into securities and sold them to investors, raising the additional question of whether Countrywide understated the risks such investments carried.

Many of these companies mentioned are clients of The Firm. I have no knowledge of the background except what was in these stories.

Friday, April 25, 2008

REITs still have a Buy Rating

In another sign that the commercial real estate sector is not in the same trouble as the residential sector, many REITs still have good ratings from S&P.

According to Business week in the first quarter of 2008, the group posted a 0.8% total return, at a time when the S&P 500 index fell 9.4%. (REITs Show Strength)

Business Week put together a list of 17 REITs that have a 4- (buy) or 5-STARS (strong buy) rankings from S&P Equity Research:

Alexandria ARE
AMB Property AMB
Annaly Capital Management NLY
Developers Diversified Realty DDR
Essex Property ESS
Federal Realty FRT
First Industrial Realty FR
General Growth Properties GGP
Macerich MAC
Mack-Cali CLI
National Retail Properties NNN
ProLogis PLD
PS Business Parks PSB
Regency Centers REG
Simon Property Group SPG
Taubman Centers TCO
Weingarten Realty WRI


(Disclaimer: Some of these REITs are clients of my employer.)

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Commercial Properties Are Not Selling

Yesterday, I posted that commercial property prices are still increasing. Of course that does not mean there are many properties selling at these prices. As the Boston Business Journal reported, commercial real estate sales have ground to a halt in downtown Boston:
The city saw $57.3 million in office-building sales during the three-month period, compared to $4.3 billion a year ago. Total commercial sales -- which included offices, retail, apartments, industrial and hotel properties -- fell 97 percent to $152.6 million during the quarter, compared to $5.2 billion in the same period in 2007, according to figures from Real Capital Analytics, a real estate research firm in New York.
Sellers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the debt markets to get back to some normalcy. Buyers are still thirsting for deals, but can't line up the debt to get the deals done. If the debt markets do not come back soon and sellers get tired of waiting, then prices will start dropping .

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Commercial Property Prices are Still Increasing

Even though residential property prices are dropping like rocks around most of the country, commercial properties are still holding their value.

The press release on the S&P/GRA Commercial Real Estate Index shows that prices are up from a year ago.
The National composite reported annual price appreciation of 7.0%, versus January of 2007, up from the +6.7% reported in December's data, but still significantly below from this cycle’s peak of +14.5%, reported in June of 2006. . . The Northeast had the highest return over the month and has the highest annual return over the past 12 months. Each of the regions reported lower monthly returns in January December/November returns.
The raw data for the Index Values is in this Excel spreadsheet.

Triple-A Failure

There is a great article by Roger Lowenstein appearing in the Sunday New York Times Magazine: Triple-A Failure. It runs through the process for converting mortgage loans into mortgage securities.

In one example, the author is taken through the rating and structure process for a pool of 2,393 mortgages with a face value of $430 million. All of the loans were sub-prime loans originated in the early spring of 2006 by a non-bank lender. Seventy-five percent of the loans were adjustable-rate.

What I found it staggering was that 43 percent of the loan were no-doc loans. The borrowers did not provide written verification of their income. No-doc loans were originally intended as an alternative loan for small business owners (especially cash businesses) where it is difficult to put together the paperwork for showing their income. But when you here no-doc loans, you should think mortgage fraud.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Banks Are Keeping More Loans on Their Books

Mark Gongloff reports in WSJ.com that U.S. commercial banks are keeping more of the loans they make on their balance sheets.
Total assets at U.S. commercial banks swelled to $11.12 trillion in early April, up from $9.94 trillion a year ago, according to Federal Reserve data that are updated every Friday. Last month, the growth rate of bank assets hit its fastest growth pace in 28 years.
As Mark states, one of the problems that occurred in the CMBS market was that lenders were not keeping an interest in the loans they originated. They were just producing the paper to package into a stream of CMBS offerings. Banks forgot that they were making loans and that the loans would have to be managed.

Prior to the CMBS, when negotiating documents, the "no" response was that the change would reduce the value of the paper. I was not hearing that it would affect the lender's ability to manage the loan.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Wachovia and Lender Woes

As WSJ.com is reporting, Wachovia Swings to Loss, Plans to Raise Capital.

I noticed that Wachovia was retreating from some its lending relationships. The retreat made little sense because they were good borrowers with very solid sponsors. I assumed that Wachovia was trying to preserve capital. That turned out to be true as Wachovia admitted that they are trying to sell stock to raise another $7 billion in capital.

I think there will be a few more banks looking to raise capital in the next few months. Many banks just blew their risk analysis. There is a great piece by Adam Davidson on NPR: Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis.
"Every big bank has a risk management team whose job it is to keep the banks out of trouble. The teams use complex computers to guide the banks away from financial danger. But as the global credit crisis shows, those models failed to keep many major U.S. and foreign financial firms from making bad bets on mortgages."

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Kimco Realty Corporation and Milton Cooper

There is nice piece in next month's Forbes on Kimco Realty Corporation and Milton Cooper: Beyond the Big Box.
"REITs have to follow certain rules in order to avoid most corporate income taxes. Chiefly, they must pay out 90% of their income to shareholders in dividends. Many REITs are content to own buildings and collect rent. Others, like Boston Properties, have also moved into developing their own buildings. But Cooper gets 45% of his earnings from sources like managing real estate for pension funds, lending to bankrupt retailers and buying distressed properties. Only a few other REITs, such as Developers Diversified and ProLogis, have branched out like this."

"So in 1998 Cooper had a brainstorm: go into business with pension funds, developing and managing shopping centers for funds such as New York Common Retirement Fund and G.E. Pension Trust. Here was a bunch that was happy with returns as low as 6%, if the investments were safe. Many also were required to have some capital in real estate. Typical partnership deal: The pension funds contribute 85% of the project cost, Kimco the remainder. Once the center is built Kimco earns a fee for managing the properties, around 4% of rents."

Saturday, February 16, 2008

The CMBS Market has Re-Opened

According to Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns Cos. sold the first commercial mortgage backed security of the year: Morgan Stanley Sells First Commercial Mortgage Security of 2008.

It was a $1.2 billion dollar package of which $630 million was in the senior position. As you might expect the spreads were very high and the subordination was very high.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Securitization and Lax Mortgage Lending

The Chain of Fools is the title of The Economist's Economics Focus column. The article points to the increasing evidence that securitization lead to lax mortgage lending in the United States.

The column is based largely on the study by Atif R. Mian and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago's Business School: The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis.

In the end the problem was severing the origination of mortgage loans from their ongoing management and servicing. The originators were motivated to increase the flow of mortgage paper, not necessarily to increase the quality of that mortgage paper. As evidence, you can look at the increase of NINJA loans (No Income, No Job or Assets) on the residential side of mortgage lending and the light covenant loans on the commercial side of mortgage lending.

Mortgage lenders farmed out the mortgage origination to brokers. The mortgage lenders in turn packaged the mortgage loans and securitized them. As a result, the broker and the lender were focused on the short term origination and not on the long term value of the mortgage debt.

In representing the borrowers of loans to be securitized, I often heard that the statement: "I can't sell that in the market." I never heard, "that will be affect my ability to manage or service the mortgage loan."

The underlying economic problem is that the originating lenders did not keep any "skin in the game." Nearly all of their economic return was in the origination, not the long term success.